Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-08 34.502458 37.228916 40.198608 43.697863 47.740706 52.305554 57.909130
2025-06-15 31.244125 35.020273 39.417602 45.009568 52.075136 60.920761 73.213890
2025-06-22 28.686250 32.894520 38.000108 44.819407 53.977290 66.337531 85.289826
2025-06-29 26.549654 30.937563 36.419633 44.012529 54.699066 70.027148 95.619943
2025-07-06 24.648884 29.059204 34.689144 42.702479 54.398048 72.016487 103.654011
2025-07-13 24.046531 28.763918 34.951488 44.074159 58.048520 80.582906 125.658788
2025-07-20 23.374405 28.301970 34.915418 44.968493 61.050668 88.698666 150.421419
2025-07-27 22.717377 27.798499 34.756890 45.628045 63.729823 96.835645 179.752024
2025-08-03 21.880162 26.985231 34.082908 45.406055 64.861589 102.283660 206.009159
2025-08-10 20.959067 25.998721 33.084108 44.566008 64.772713 105.215692 227.313685
2025-08-17 20.103170 25.058907 32.092714 43.645320 64.406027 107.464747 248.470113
2025-08-24 19.399613 24.301417 31.326019 43.023750 64.508057 110.797208 277.073670
2025-08-31 18.577954 23.359306 30.261733 41.878460 63.578963 111.776475 299.047892
2025-09-07 18.396629 23.337449 30.596077 43.129513 67.544267 126.167885 411.286037
2025-09-14 17.898488 22.823511 30.133824 42.951179 68.566903 133.220166 504.245271
2025-09-21 17.310140 22.150030 29.383905 42.199708 68.268686 136.439486 582.377651
2025-09-28 16.658835 21.358502 28.410429 40.978133 66.803797 135.759080 625.947408
2025-10-05 16.579353 21.420360 28.797267 42.257130 71.077267 155.059315 1061.600394
2025-10-12 16.409672 21.335742 28.939021 43.090020 74.489517 173.650177 2018.160756
2025-10-19 16.205560 21.188170 28.966495 43.703749 77.494675 192.898483 5363.766946
2025-10-26 15.861746 20.810399 28.590461 43.497230 78.403110 204.048870 19668.824662
2025-11-02 15.433485 20.286931 27.947012 42.715286 77.706475 207.536515 198074.357868
2025-11-09 15.012997 19.763821 27.285061 41.857471 76.712139 209.281892 NaN